AT least 1.4 billion Facebook members have been predicted to die before 2100, as a result of which dead members on the social media platform could outnumber the living members by 2070. A new analysis conducted by researchers from the Oxford Internet Institute (part of the University of Oxford, England) said the dead may outnumber the living on Facebook within 50 years – a trend that it said will have grave implications for the world’s digital heritage in the future.
From their
analysis, the researchers said if Facebook continues to expand at current
rates, the number of deceased members could reach as high as 4.9 billion before
the end of the century.
With an estimated 2.32 billion monthly active users as of the fourth quarter of 2018, Facebook is currently rated the world’s largest social network. The predictions are based on data from the UN, which provide the expected number of mortalities and total populations for every country in the world distributed by age, and Facebook data scraped from the company’s Audience Insights feature.
Lead author of
the analysis, Carl Ohman, a doctoral candidate at the Oxford Internet Institute
said the statistics give rise to new and difficult questions around who has the
right to all this data, how should it be managed in the best interests of the
families and friends of the deceased and its use by future historians to
understand the past. “On a societal level, we have just begun asking these
questions and we have a long way to go. The management of our digital remains
will eventually affect everyone who uses social media, since all of us will one
day pass away and leave our data behind.
“But the totality of the deceased user
profiles also amounts to something larger than the sum of its parts. It is, or
will at least become, part of our global digital heritage,” Ohman stated.
“Co-author of the study, David Watson, also a DPhil student at the Institute
explained: “Never before in history has such a vast archive of human behaviour
and culture been assembled in one place. Controlling this archive will, in a
sense, be to control our history.
“It is therefore important that we ensure
that access to these historical data is not limited to a single for-profit
firm. It is also important to make sure that future generations can use our digital
heritage to understand their history.” Ohman said the analysis sets up two
potential extreme scenarios, arguing that the future trend will fall somewhere
in between.
“The first scenario assumes that no new users join Facebook as of
2018. Under these conditions, Asia’s share of dead users increases rapidly to
account for nearly 44 percent of the total by the end of the century. “Nearly
half of those profiles come from India and Indonesia, which together account
for just under 279 million Facebook mortalities by 2100. “The second scenario
assumes that Facebook continues to grow by its current rate of 13 percent
globally, every year, until each market reaches saturation.”
Watson added: “Facebook should invite historians, archivists, archaeologists and ethicists to participate in the process of curating the vast volume of accumulated data that we leave behind as we pass away. “This is not just about finding solutions that will be sustainable for the next couple of years, but possibly for many decades ahead.
Watson added: “Facebook should invite historians, archivists, archaeologists and ethicists to participate in the process of curating the vast volume of accumulated data that we leave behind as we pass away. “This is not just about finding solutions that will be sustainable for the next couple of years, but possibly for many decades ahead.